The way I see it, this is a time to hold
Probably let the chaos ebb a little bit
Russia violating the sovereignty of Ukraine with their semi-botched invasion has obviously thrown the world into chaos. Fears of food insecurity could become self-fulfilling prophecies. Battles at the edge of the EU could easily lead to wider involvement, which could lead to the clock striking midnight once again in Europe as the vast resources of the United States are again are brought to bear in a probable world war three-peat.
What Putin has done is unfortunate, and mostly for his own country in the long term. This event is the type that creates or hardens national identity. Ukraine has a route to being a future member of the Western club at this point, despite and because of the awful tragedy of this war.
But what about the stocks and cryptos? Well the underlying information inputs are hard to model on their own but the chaotic thinking going on makes the markets even more erratic than they have to be right now.
But maybe the Fed will back away from their ill-advised attempts to raise rates and taper asset purchases this year. Maybe much of the world will route around Russia, moving to green energy more quickly than previously planned. Maybe a war between the world’s 11th largest economy and and the world’s 45th largest economy won’t have as big of an economic impact as many fear.
But we still have to get the what’s next. Right now we are in a moment of intense fear in the markets—fear of escalation, fear of of asset price destabilization, even fear of “communism.” The markets have to calm down at some point, and until then I am holding steady.
Disclosure: Through personal holdings that I control and through investment LLCs in which I am a partner, I buy, hold, and sell stocks, bonds, ETFs, options, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies, not limited to but including some of those discussed in this newsletter.