Predicting the odds of a sustained downturn
A lot of recession hype, how much recession reality?
Popular sentiment still calmly accepts the premise of cyclical recessions being predictable events, with such recessions defined as (a) two quarters of economic contraction as measured by GDP or (b) a “significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity” or something to that effect. These definitions are rather independent of the path …
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