The Long Trade

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The Long Trade
The Long Trade
Predicting the odds of a sustained downturn

Predicting the odds of a sustained downturn

A lot of recession hype, how much recession reality?

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Daniel McKeown
Jul 28, 2022
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The Long Trade
The Long Trade
Predicting the odds of a sustained downturn
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Popular sentiment still calmly accepts the premise of cyclical recessions being predictable events, with such recessions defined as (a) two quarters of economic contraction as measured by GDP or (b) a “significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity” or something to that effect. These definitions are rather independent of the path …

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